By John Jackson 
With both teams looking ahead to the second leg and looking to keep things in reach, our EFL Cup semifinal picks are targeting the Under.
Arsenal and Newcastle meet in the first of two EFL Cup semifinals for the first leg to decide who’ll reach that final at Wembley.
Both teams are desperate to win silverware, but both are coming into this game missing key personnel. With so much at stake, our Arsenal vs. Newcastle predictions like the Under.
Read on for my EFL Cup picks for Tuesday, January 7, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount Plus.
Arsenal vs Newcastle picks and predictions
My best bet:
Under 2.5 (+123 at TonyBet)
My analysis
While most teams rest players in this competition, once you reach the semifinals, you’ll see teams focus less on resting their stars and instead look to secure a spot at Wembley and a chance to win the trophy.
Both teams are unlikely to rest any of their stars but they’ll certainly be missing key players with injuries and suspension depriving both clubs of important pieces. Arsenal are missing their best player in Bukayo Saka, as well as Ben White and potentially Kai Havertz.
While Newcastle have Fabian Schar and Bruno Guimaraes suspended, joining the long-term injured Nick Pope on the sidelines. These injuries and suspensions are one of the main reasons why the Under 2.5 comes in as our best bet for this game. Neither side is at their best.
We’ve seen Under 2.5 goals in 55.6% of Arsenal’s home games at the Emirates, and without Saka, Havertz, and maybe even Ethan Nwaneri, who went off injured in the last game, goals will be hard to come by. That means they’ll instead rely on their excellent defense.
Newcastle’s suspensions, particularly of Guimaraes, deprive them of their best player. Without the Brazilian in the heart of midfield, they’re going to be significantly weaker, and in truth, they’d be happy to get out of this game with the scores level ahead of the second leg at St James’ Park.
With everything at stake, as well as the missing players, expect this one to start slow, with both teams playing cautiously and playing a more risk-averse style. With 90 minutes left in the second leg, it’s less important they win this game on Tuesday and more important they don’t lose. That will lead to it being tense and nervy — and ultimately being lower scoring.
Arsenal vs Newcastle same-game parlay (SGP)
In addition to the best bet, we’re also going to back Arsenal to win. They’re the better team, as evidenced by them being second in the league table, three spots ahead of Newcastle. Arsenal have a great record against Newcastle at the Emirates and have won 11 of the past 13 meetings on home soil. Arsenal have just enough extra quality to be able to secure the win.
The final leg of the SGP is backing Gabriel Jesus to score. The Brazilian has started the past five games, thanks in part to injuries, and has scored six goals in that time, including three in Arsenal’s last EFL Cup game, a win over Crystal Palace.
Arsenal vs Newcastle opening odds
Moneyline: Arsenal -152 | Newcastle +370
Draw: +300
Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-157) | Under 2.5 (+123)
Arsenal vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis
The Over 2.5 has landed іn just 40% оf Arsenal’s league games this season and іn 63.6% оf Newcastle’s road league games.
Arsenal are unbeaten іn 13 games іn all competitions. Newcastle have won six games іn a row іn all competitions.
Arsenal have beaten Newcastle іn 11 оf their previous 13 home games іn all competitions.