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Mike Norman examines the patterns of the last 36 teams promoted to the Premier League, revealing that, as the odds indicate, Leicester City and Ipswich Town are strong candidates to be relegated back to the Championship.
Newly promoted Premier League teams are likely to face immediate relegatio
According to Betfair Sportsbook, Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton are the top contenders for relegation from the Premier League this season. Betfair’s Premier League Relegation market lists the odds for these newly-promoted teams as 8/15 for Leicester, 17/20 for Ipswich, and 11/10 for Southampton. These odds reflect the growing belief that the gap between the Premier League and the Championship is widening.
Last season, all three clubs promoted from the Championship—Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton Town—were relegated right away. Will history repeat itself this season? What do recent trends suggest?
A 47.2% rate of immediate relegation
Analyzing the last 36 clubs promoted from the Championship over the past 12 seasons, we find that 17 of them were relegated from the Premier League the following year. This statistic suggests that Leicester City, Southampton, and Ipswich Town each face a 47.2% chance of being relegated this season.
Further examination of the trends reveals intriguing details about newly-promoted teams. Below is a list of all 36 clubs promoted during the 12 seasons starting from the 2011/12 Championship campaign, including the number of points they earned in their promotion season and, in parentheses, the season they were subsequently relegated from the Premier League.
Key:
— SBD = Straight Back Down
— SS = Second Season
— NRS = Not Relegated Since
— 3 (or any other number) = Number of seasons before being relegated
2011/12
— Reading: 89 (SBD)
— Southampton: 88 (11)
— West Ham: 86 (NRS)
2012/13
— Cardiff: 87 (SBD)
— Hull: 79 (SS)
— Crystal Palace: 72 (NRS)
2013/14
— Leicester: 102 (9)
— Burnley: 93 (SBD)
— QPR: 80 (SBD)
2014/15
— Bournemouth: 90 (5)
— Watford: 89 (5)
— Norwich: 86 (SBD)
2015/16
— Burnley: 93 (6)
— Middlesbrough: 89 (SBD)
— Hull: 83 (SBD)
2016/17
— Newcastle: 94 (NRS)
— Brighton: 93 (NRS)
— Huddersfield: 81 (SS)
2017/18
— Wolves: 99 (NRS)
— Cardiff: 90 (SBD)
— Fulham: 88 (SBD)
2018/19
— Norwich: 94 (SBD)
— Sheffield United: 89 (SS)
— Aston Villa: 76 (NRS)
2019/20
— Leeds: 93 (3)
— West Brom: 83 (SBD)
— Fulham: 81 (SBD)
2020/21
— Norwich: 97 (SBD)
— Watford: 91 (SBD)
— Brentford: 87 (NRS)
2021/22
— Fulham: 90 (NRS)
— Bournemouth: 88 (NRS)
— Nottm Forest: 80 (NRS)
2022/23
— Burnley: 101 (SBD)
— Sheffield United: 91 (SBD)
— Luton: 80 (SBD)
In summary, 17 out of the 36 promoted clubs (47.22%) were immediately relegated the following season.
Interestingly, the concept of ‘Second Season Syndrome’ appears to be less relevant here, as only three clubs (8.33%) were relegated in their second season back in the Premier League. However, this percentage rises to 15.79% when considering that with 17 clubs being relegated immediately, only 19 clubs had the chance to be relegated in their second season.
Among the 36 promoted clubs, 10 (27.78%) have not been relegated since their Premier League debut. Leeds United were relegated in their third season after promotion, Bournemouth and Watford in their fifth season, Burnley in their sixth, Leicester in their ninth, and Southampton were relegated 11 seasons after their promotion to the Premier League in 2012.
Summary:
*number = amount of clubs in each category
— Straight Back Down: — 17 (47.22%)
— Relegated in Second Season:- 3 (8.33%)
— Not Relegated Since: — 10 (27.78)
— Relegated after three seasons: 1 (2.78%)
— Relegated after five seasons: — 2 (5.56%)
— Relegated after six seasons: — 1 (2.78%)
— Relegated after nine seasons: — 1 (2.78%)
— Relegated after 11 seasons: — 1 (2.78%)
Dominating the Championship isn’t crucial for staying up
It might seem logical that accumulating more points in the Championship would indicate a stronger team heading into the Premier League, thus improving their chances of survival. However, this isn’t always the case.
For instance, Norwich City won the Championship with 94 points in the 2018/19 season, while Aston Villa earned only 76 points and was promoted through the play-offs. Despite this, Norwich was relegated immediately, whereas Villa has since remained in the Premier League.
In the 2020/21 season, Norwich again gained promotion with 97 points but was relegated the following year. Similarly, Burnley, despite winning the Championship with 101 points last season, was relegated from the Premier League just 12 months later.
Recent trends show that the gap between the Premier League and top Championship teams seems to be growing. Only three out of the last nine clubs that secured promotion with at least 90 points managed to avoid relegation the following season, compared to five out of the previous six such clubs that did avoid relegation.
Promoted with 90+ points:
— Over the past 12 seasons: 15 teams in total, with 7 (46.67%) being immediately relegated the following year.
— Over the last 6 seasons: 9 teams in total, with 6 (66.67%) being immediately relegated the following year.
This trend seems concerning for Leicester and Ipswich, who were promoted with 97 and 96 points, respectively. However, it may be more promising for Southampton, who earned promotion through the play-offs with 87 points.
Saints can find encouragement from past play-off victors
Although Southampton earned promotion via the play-offs last season, they statistically have the best chance of staying up among the three newly-promoted teams based on trends from the past 12 seasons.
Among the last 10 teams promoted to the Premier League that have not yet been relegated, exactly half (50%) were play-off winners. Of the remaining five, three (30%) won the Championship title and two (20%) finished as runners-up.
Additionally, Southampton benefits from a favorable statistic: out of 21 clubs promoted from the Championship with fewer than 90 points, fewer than half—10 clubs (47.62%)—were relegated the following season. This trend is even more positive in recent years, with only three (37.5%) of the last eight teams promoted with fewer than 90 points going straight back down.
Promoted with fewer than 90 points:
— Over the past 12 seasons: 21 teams in total, with 10 (47.62%) being immediately relegated the following year.
— Over the last 5 seasons: 8 teams in total, with 3 (37.5%) being immediately relegated the following year.
Premier League Relegation Odds:
— Leicester 8/15
— Ipswich 17/20
— Southampton 11/10
— Nottm Forest 2/1
— Everton 9/4
— Wolves 3/1
— Brentford 4/1
— Fulham 5/1
— BAR 13/2